House Democrats try to stay on offense heading into 2010 midterms

Mar 10, 2010 — Washington Post

Chris Cillizza

Faced with a difficult national political environment and daunting historical trends heading into the 2010 midterm elections, House Democratic strategists have long subscribed to an age-old cliche: a best defense is a good offense.

In a political context, that means finding Republican-held seats where Democrats can make pickups -- or attempt pickups -- this fall in hopes of mitigating what appear likely to be significant losses across the country in their own ranks.

This morning the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee showed a bit of its hand in that regard with the release of its "Red to Blue" list of Republican-held districts and open seats where the party believes it can win.

Of the baker's dozen of races on the list, President Barack Obama carried nine in 2008: California's 3rd (49 percent), California's 45th (52 percent), Delaware's at large (62 percent), Illinois' 10th (61 percent), Nebraska's 2nd (50 percent), Ohio's 12th (54 percent), Pennsylvania's 7th (56 percent), 15th (56 percent) and Washington's 8th (57 percent). (Pennsylvania's 7th district is a Democratic open seat.)

In the remaining four "Red to Blue" seats, President Obama won 49 percent (Florida's 12th), 45 percent (South Carolina's 2nd), 43 percent (Tennessee's 8th) and 40 percent (Kansas' 4th).

While the 49 districts currently held by Democrats that Arizona Sen. John McCain carried in 2008 get the lion's share of attention heading into the 2010 midterms, it may well be the 33 districts held by Republicans and won by Obama that make the difference between majority and minority status for Democrats.

If Democrats can steal seven to ten (or so) of those Republican-held Obama districts, they make the majority bar that much higher for Republicans who go from needing 40 seats to looking at a pickup of 50-ish Democratic seats to retake the majority

A quick glance at those 33 -- the full list is after the jump -- suggests two states may be looked back on as Democratic missed opportunities: California and Michigan.

Of the eight(!) California congressional seats that Obama won in 2008, only two made the "Red to Blue" list. That means that people like Reps. Elton Gallegly, Buck McKeon, David Dreier and Brian Bilbray may escape serious challenges in swing districts.

Ditto Michigan's four seats -- the 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th -- where Obama won in November 2008. None of that quartet of districts made "Red to Blue" including the seats of Reps. Fred Upton and Thad McCotter each of which Obama won with 54 percent in 2008. (Filing doesn't close in Michigan until May 11 so Democrats still have some time to find serious challengers in those Obama districts.)

Of course, simply because a race doesn't make the "Red to Blue" list doesn't necessarily mean that it isn't being targeted by Democrats; a good example is Louisiana's 2nd, which is perhaps the best pickup chance in the country for Democrats (Obama won it with 75 percent) but doesn't appear on the list.

And, in any election, there are a handful of districts where both sides feel as though they could have -- and should have -- made competitive but didn't.

That said, faced with a very tough election cycle, House Democrats have to miss as few races as possible. Their margin for error isn't terribly large.

Republican-held districts won by Obama in 2008

California's 3rd (Obama won with 49 percent)

California's 24th (51)

California's 25th (49)

California's 26th (51)

California's 44th (50)

California's 45th (52)

California's 48th (49)

California's 50th (51)

Delaware's At-Large (62)

Florida's 10th (52)

Florida's 18th (51)

Illinois' 6th (56)

Illinois' 10th (61)

Illinois' 13th (54)

Illinois' 16th (53)

Iowa's 4th (53)

Louisiana's 2nd (75)

Michigan's 4th (50)

Michigan's 6th (54)

Michigan's 8th (53)

Michigan's 11th (54)

Minnesota's 3rd (52)

Nebraska's 2nd (50)

New Jersey's 2nd (54)

New Jersey's 7th (50)

Ohio's 12th (54)

Pennsylvania's 6th (58)

Pennsylvania's 15th (56)

Virginia's 4th (50)

Virginia's 10th (53)

Washington's 8th (57)

Wisconsin's 1st (51)

Wisconsin's 6th (50)